Carlos Marmol

Manager Lou Pinella is starting to get sick of Ryan Dempster and almost made a change to the back of his bullpen this weekend. According to the Associated Press in a report Sunday evening, Dempster was told he would be moving back to the rotation but before long he was told that he would remain the Cubs' closer.

Dempster's actually been doing a decent job this year with nine saves and only one blown save to his record. His K/9 and K/BB ratios are fine and his BB/9 is decent. His ERA is inflated due to a poor strand rate but his job is based on being able to strand runners if he comes into a situation with runners on base. If he continues to have problems here there is a good chance that Pinella will scapegoat Dempster and consider making a closing switch.

The Chicago Sun-Times reported on Sunday morning that Carlos Marmol was the likely candidate to take over closing duties for Dempster had a change been made. Marmol has good stuff as evidenced by his 48/12 K/BB ratio as a starter at Triple-A this season. He's going to get a chance to establish himself as a setup man for now it would seem and that makes him worth stashing away in NL only leagues. Dempster has proven to be faulty as a closer in the past and has indicated that he would prefer to start despite the history of stats that proves he's no good in that role. If a change happens Marmol could be the beneficiary.

Brad Penny - is it time to move him?

Well, it has been a while since I posted. My personal life has been a bit busy which has left me with less time on the fantasy circuit this year. I am still in a couple leagues so I have been keeping tabs on things. I just haven't been able to help other out along the way.

I am going to take a look at pitcher performance for now as it what interests me at the moment. This post will be a look at Brad Penny, who I own in my NL only league. He has piqued my interest because of his great start to the season despite his lack of strikeouts.

Name	Season	IP	ERA	xERA	H%	S%	Ctl	Dom	Cmd	hr/f	hr/9
Brad Penny	2007	56.7	2.54	2.62	29%	77%	3.18	5.56	1.75	0%	0

Penny's 2007 performance is good and most of the numbers here are fine. However, he is lacking a bit in dominance (K/9), command (K/BB) and control (BB/9). These numbers are all just slighty worse than what you want out of a starter on your squad according to the baselines outlined by Ron Shandler at Baseball HQ. I use these metrics to measure the performance of my players in a file I created that can easily calculate these rates for me.

Right now I would label Penny as a pitcher you should be trying to sell but I also wouldn't worry if you can't move him immediately. Penny says he is reinventing himself this year as his approach will rely more on pitching to contact and less on striking batters out (outside of that 14 K performance against the Marlins). Penny has posted a 2.68 GB/FB rate thus far this season and if he can keep his ratio around there with his current K/9, K/BB, BB/9 he should remain effective this season. The question is, can he keep up the favorable ground ball rate?

Note: I didn't mention the HR rate but obviously that isn't sustainable. Expect his ERA to rise a bit even if he maintains his performance accross the board everywhere else.

Got my Fantasy Baseball HQ newsletter today and saw this interesting post from Shandler

RON SHANDLER'S MASTER NOTES
HQ at the Ballpark
Last week, my column at BaseballHQ.com described how that the evolution of our industry is spawning social isolationism. Fantasy sports was designed to be a social activity. With online gaming, not only do we not need to be in the same room anymore, we don't even have to use our real names.

In the column, I suggested that we all get out from behind our computer monitors and start connecting to the others in our leagues. We should share phone numbers, engage in live trade negotiations rather than email. If you recognize a familiar area code, you should hop into your car and meet a league-mate over a few beers.

This column generated some spirited discussion on our message boards as well last week. One of the other ideas floated out there was for us to arrange some ballpark outings. Sure, what better way to connect than at a game?

So I am going to do this. I am planning an outing this summer at either RFK Stadium or Camden Yards – I'm still trying to work out my schedule. I'll report back here in a few weeks. If you would like to spearhead an outing for Baseball HQ Friday readers at your home ballpark, drop me a note. Send it to me personally at letsconnect@ronshandler.com.

This summer, we're going to fight back against the aspects of this hobby that isolate us.

I'd actually suggest that people should try to get into more auction or straight draft leagues that are live and local to their area. I am only able to participate in one live auction at the moment but it is far and away my favorite league. Nothing is better than getting together with a group and spending a few hours together doing a draft in the same room. Our league has an All-Star break meeting as well which helps to better connect with league mates - something I also think is a good idea.

Wife Swap wants Fantasy Junkies

Greetings ~My name is Julia Jenkins and I am a casting producer for ABC familieshit reality show 'Wife Swap.'We are currently casting for our third season and we are looking forFAMILIES THAT LOVE TO PLAY FANTASY SPORTS.

We cast everywhere fromMaine to California, and this would bring a fun and unique dynamic tothe show.If you are unfamiliar with the show, Wife Swap is a fascinating storyof what happens when two married couples see themselves and theirspouses in a whole new light. Time Magazine calls Wife Swap "ariveting examination of family values." The New York Post says, "Itshould be called 'Life Swap'because it's not just the wives who learn something here. It's thefamilies.

"The premise of Wife Swap is simple: for seven days, two wives from twodifferent families with very different values exchange husbands,children and lives (but not bedrooms) to discover what it's like tolive a different woman's life.Here at 'Wife Swap' we look for a two-parent home with at least onechild between the ages of 6 and 17 living at home fulltime.

We are currently casting for our third season, so don't miss out onthis amazing experience! Families that appear on the show receive$20,000 as a thank you. And if you refer a family that appears on theshow you would receive $1000.If you have a family and you are interested in applying for the show,or if you know of any great families that you would like to refer,please EMAIL:julia.jenkins@rdfusa.com. Please provide details in your email!!Thanks! I look forward to hearing from you!

Baseball Notebook Blog

Been a while since I posted - check out the new blog at BaseballNotebook.com for lots of good information.

CREATiVESPORTS’ 2006 Mid-Season MLB Report - FREE!

Built specifically with the NFBC Mid-Season leagues in mind, CREATiVESPORTS.com’s Mid-Season MLB Report, now in its second year, will soon be ready to ship.

This comprehensive report includes:
An easy-to-use, sortable projections spreadsheet in a format comparable to CREATiVESPORTS’ popular MLB Draft Kit. Information includes player name, team, position, secondary position eligibility, round and position ranking, along with projected second-half statistics using CREATiVESPORTS’ exclusive ZEN PROJECTION ENGINE™.

Comprehensive set of team reports for all 30 MLB squads written by the baseball experts at CREATiVESPORTS, including depth charts and team forecasts on hitting, pitching, speed and bullpen. Deadline trades and September call-ups are also forecasted.

If you’re competing in the NFBC Mid-Season leagues or you want that extra push to win your full-season leagues, this report is for you! Just sign up for our exclusive Fantasy Sports Daily e-newsletter to receive your free copy. Current FSD subscribers should look for the link to this Report no later than July 9.

Baseball Card Death

This site, while not the prettiest, is pretty damn funny for any of you that might have collected baseball cards in the late 80's to early 90's.

Pen Names - Atlanta Braves

A look at the closing situation in the ATL.

Pen Names - Atlanta Braves

A look at the closing situation in the ATL.

Pen Names - a look at closing situations

I've been busy lately and haven't had much time to dedicate to this blog. Here are my three columns that I've posted for Creativesports this month and last:



Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Florida Marlins
Baltimore Orioles

BATTING BUYERS GUIDE: Non-roster invitees

Baseball HQ has a free article looking at some spring training NRIs that could have some fantasy value this year.

Pen Names

My first article for the 2006 season is posted at CS: Pen Names > Baltimore Orioles - a look at the closing situation.

BaseballDoctors.com

Another site that I've never used for projections but they are free.

The Baseball Injury Report

I stumbled upon this site today. Not sure if it will be of any value to fantasy leaguers but there is a free newsletter that you can sign up for which should give a good indication of what value this site might have to offer.

Rotospin.com Projections

Rotospin has launched their 2006 dollar value calculator and it is free. I've never used their projections so I can't speak to the quality of them but they are free.

Baseball Notebook Top 100 Prospects

The Baseball Notebook Top 100 Prospects, a prospect list like no other you'll find on the internet. David Luciani's lists will always stray away from those you'll find at other prominent sites because of the type of analysis he does. In fact, I can guarentee you that no other site will have Hunter Pence ranked as the #3 overall prospect in baseball. Does that mean Luciani is wrong? No. Does it mean he is right? No. Does it mean there is a chance for you to find sweet value at the end of your prospect draft by taking a chance on Pence when hardly anyone else will consider him? Yes.

In the end it is all about finding value in fantasy leagues. If you can unearth a gem no one else has heard of and you can get him on the cheap then you have to cash in on that opportunity. Consider the Baseball Notebook prospect list as your chance to cash in. Not all of the prospects will pan out but no list can predict every future star.

Fangraphs

I ran across this site a while back: www.fangraphs.com. I recommend checking it out. Here's a little blurb about what they do:

At Fangraphs we have 17 graphs for every player that played in the Major Leagues since 2002. That comes to about 30,000 baseball graphs. Every graph is updated every single day of the season with the most current stats. Not only do we graph ordinary stats such as batting average but we also provide graphs of various sabermetrics.

Diamond Draft Free Customizable $ Values

Hi everyone. It's been a nice break but the offseason doesn't last long when you write for fantasy websites. I've been working on my submissions for three different mags/draft kits and have started to notice some free resources popping up already.

First off, check out Diamond Draft for free, customizable dollar values. I've never used their projections so I can't speak to the quality but it is a free resource.

Second, David Luciani at Baseball Notebook has posted a sneak peak at his projections for 2006. The finished product won't be free however.

More to come this offseason!

FANALYTICS: Quint-Inning, The Official Rules

Ron Shandler has come up with a way to play fantasy baseball for only one game. It's an interesting concept. Ron is trying to find away to connect with the attention deficit crowd who likes fantasy sports and baseball but is not able to make the long-term commitment to a full season of fantasy baseball.

BULLPEN BUYERS GUIDE: Relief roles mean opportunities

A good example of how to analyze relief roles to determine which relievers can help you down the stretch.