The Case Against K/9 and BB/9

Chris Constancio has an interesting little article over at FirstInning.com regarding the use of K% and BB% instead of K/9 and BB/9 for measuring pitcher effectiveness. The reason it is important:

"Pitchers who do surrender many hits or walk a lot of batters have inflated K/9 rates because they face more batters per inning and therefore have more opportunities to record strikeouts."

Prospect Watch: Travis Denker, 2B (Dodgers)

Travis Denker is a prospect that most fantasy owners have probably never heard of. I first caught wind of Denker's name in David Luciani's 2006 Top 100 Prospect list at BaseballNotebook.com. Denker has been compared to Marcus Giles because of his smallish size and hard working nature. He's been projected by some as a utility player and others as a potential starting 2B/3B. What the future holds is up in the air but Denker is clearly becoming a prospect to watch as he nears a promotion to Double-A.

Here's a look at Denker's recent minor league performance:

Denker got off to a decent start in 2006 hitting .268/.420/.452 at Low-A Columbus as a 20-year-old but struggled when he was moved up to High-A Vero Beach, hitting .220/.309/.330 in 191 at-bats. The Dodgers decided to start Denker back at High-A again this season and things appear to have clicked for him. He's hitting .354/.419/.508 with four home runs and eight doubles in 130 at-bats. Denker's 16/17 K/BB ratio is the most encouraging sign from his play thus far. He's displayed good command of the strike zone throughout his time in the minors, even when he was struggling to make contact at High-A in 2006. Add the great eye to his power potential (he hit 21 bombs in 2005 as a 19-year-old) and postion and you have the makings of a very nice keeper prospect in fantasy leagues.

If you have limited bench space it probably isn't worth rostering Denker yet in shallower NL only leagues. If you are playing in an Ultra league with deep benches/keeper lists then now is a good time to consider Denker as he's going to be on the radar of a lot more fantasy owners next season if he keeps his offensive performance going throughout the year.

Anthony Reyes

Anthony Reyes has gotten off to a rough start to the season thus far. He's 0-8 with a 6.08 ERA and a 39/18 K/BB ratio in 50.1 innings. However, a deeper look into his numbers reveals a pitcher we should be paying attention to rather than ignoring.

Season	IP	ERA	xERA	H%	S%	Ctl	Dom	Cmd	hr/f	hr/9	BABIP
2007	50.3	6.08	4.23	30%	55%	3.22	6.97	2.17	14%	1.07	0.297

The positives: Good dominance, hit rate is normal, strand rate is probably going to go up

The negatives: Command, control and hr/f are not exactly where we want to see them but not exactly terrible either

The xERA of 4.23 tells us that Reyes should be performing better than what his current stats show. He's had five starts this year where he has allowed three runs or less yet he has no wins to show for those performances. That can be partially blamed on the St. Louis offense and partially on Reyes' inability to work more than five innings in three of those outings.

I think Reyes is a good buy low candidate in NL only and deeper mixed leagues. He's likely on the waiver wire in shallow leagues so there is no rush to pick him up. However, he can probably be of use in shallow mixed leagues at some point this season so if your pitching staff is weak or you have an open bench spot it wouldn't be a terrible idea to stash Reyes away for a bit.

Ryan Braun

The Brewers promoted Ryan Braun, their top hitting prospect, late Thursday. He should be grabbed immediately in NL only leagues and likely in all mixed leagues as well. The 23-year-old Braun was hitting .348/.429/.713 with 10 home runs, 12 doubles and four stolen bases at Triple-A Nashville. He swiped a total of 26 bags last season so he does like to run. That speed/power combination could make him one of the top fantasy third basemen in coming seasons.

Jay Bruce

The Cincinnati Enquirer reported Wednesday that the Reds are going to promote Jay Bruce to Double-A Chattanooga before or at the All-Star break. Bruce is hitting .344 with nine home runs, 15 doubles and a .401 on-base percentage in 180 at-bats at High-A Sarasota. That is some solid production and it's even better when you realize that Bruce is only 20-years-old.



Chris Constancio over at FirstInning.com had a nice note about Bruce's ability to use all of the field as well saying, "Bruce ranks in the top ten [in the Florida State League] with 6 opposite-field doubles and a pair of opposite-field home runs." If Bruce can continue to hit the outside pitch with authority he is going to be a tough out in the majors.

A strong second half of the season at Double-A would put Bruce in a position to compete for an outfield job in Cincinnati next season. That might be a bit soon for his major league debut but it wouldn't be shocking to see him in the majors by the middle of the 2008 season. He's a prospect that should be owned in any type of fantasy league that allows minor league keepers.

Kevin Gregg

The Miami Herlad reported that Kevin Gregg is going to remain the Marlins' closer even when Henry Owens, who is eligible to come off the disabled list this week, returns to the team.

Gregg has done an excellent job for the Marlins this season. He's notched four saves to go along with a 2.33 ERA and a 27/11 K/BB ratio in 27 innings while allowing only one home run. You'd like to see a bit better command but he can continue to be successful as long as the strikeout rate holds.

I was lucky enough to grab him a couple weeks back as a cheap bullpen filler in my NL only league. If he's still floating around in your mixed league make sure you snag him. There's not a ton of competition in the Florida pen so Gregg does have a good chance of holding the job all year.

Those Crazy Cubs

Following up on my post from the weekend regarding Cubs closer Ryan Dempster. According to a report in the Chicago Tribune on Tuesday, Dempster is now supposed to mentor Angel Guzman to become the Cubs' next closer. As I pointed out this weekend, Dempster doesn't deserve to lose his job at the moment as he's been pitching fairly well this season. Manager Lou Pinella seems to be losing his mind.



Anyway, Guzman has to be owned in NL only leagues now until this situation shakes out. Guzman is of course anything but a sure thing. He's young and he's been injury prone but he does have the stuff to succeed as a closer. Bobby Howry, Michael Wuertz and Carlos Marmol all should be stashed away on benches in NL only leagues as it seems anything could happen with the closing role. One thing seems certain right now, Pinella wants to move Dempster back to the rotation and that kills Dempster's fantasy value. It is probably too late to get anything of value for him at this point so you might have to hold on to Dempster and hope Pinella comes to his senses.

Ken Rosenthal's Latest Column

I always recommend reading Ken Rosenthal's weekly column for good trade/player rumors. Some of the info in his columns can be helpful for fantasy leaguers. He actually has two good columns worth reading today.

Carlos Marmol

Manager Lou Pinella is starting to get sick of Ryan Dempster and almost made a change to the back of his bullpen this weekend. According to the Associated Press in a report Sunday evening, Dempster was told he would be moving back to the rotation but before long he was told that he would remain the Cubs' closer.

Dempster's actually been doing a decent job this year with nine saves and only one blown save to his record. His K/9 and K/BB ratios are fine and his BB/9 is decent. His ERA is inflated due to a poor strand rate but his job is based on being able to strand runners if he comes into a situation with runners on base. If he continues to have problems here there is a good chance that Pinella will scapegoat Dempster and consider making a closing switch.

The Chicago Sun-Times reported on Sunday morning that Carlos Marmol was the likely candidate to take over closing duties for Dempster had a change been made. Marmol has good stuff as evidenced by his 48/12 K/BB ratio as a starter at Triple-A this season. He's going to get a chance to establish himself as a setup man for now it would seem and that makes him worth stashing away in NL only leagues. Dempster has proven to be faulty as a closer in the past and has indicated that he would prefer to start despite the history of stats that proves he's no good in that role. If a change happens Marmol could be the beneficiary.

Brad Penny - is it time to move him?

Well, it has been a while since I posted. My personal life has been a bit busy which has left me with less time on the fantasy circuit this year. I am still in a couple leagues so I have been keeping tabs on things. I just haven't been able to help other out along the way.

I am going to take a look at pitcher performance for now as it what interests me at the moment. This post will be a look at Brad Penny, who I own in my NL only league. He has piqued my interest because of his great start to the season despite his lack of strikeouts.

Name	Season	IP	ERA	xERA	H%	S%	Ctl	Dom	Cmd	hr/f	hr/9
Brad Penny	2007	56.7	2.54	2.62	29%	77%	3.18	5.56	1.75	0%	0

Penny's 2007 performance is good and most of the numbers here are fine. However, he is lacking a bit in dominance (K/9), command (K/BB) and control (BB/9). These numbers are all just slighty worse than what you want out of a starter on your squad according to the baselines outlined by Ron Shandler at Baseball HQ. I use these metrics to measure the performance of my players in a file I created that can easily calculate these rates for me.

Right now I would label Penny as a pitcher you should be trying to sell but I also wouldn't worry if you can't move him immediately. Penny says he is reinventing himself this year as his approach will rely more on pitching to contact and less on striking batters out (outside of that 14 K performance against the Marlins). Penny has posted a 2.68 GB/FB rate thus far this season and if he can keep his ratio around there with his current K/9, K/BB, BB/9 he should remain effective this season. The question is, can he keep up the favorable ground ball rate?

Note: I didn't mention the HR rate but obviously that isn't sustainable. Expect his ERA to rise a bit even if he maintains his performance accross the board everywhere else.