Saturday, May 26, 2007

Anthony Reyes

Anthony Reyes has gotten off to a rough start to the season thus far. He's 0-8 with a 6.08 ERA and a 39/18 K/BB ratio in 50.1 innings. However, a deeper look into his numbers reveals a pitcher we should be paying attention to rather than ignoring.

SeasonIPERAxERAH%S%CtlDomCmdhr/fhr/9BABIP
200750.36.084.2330%55%3.226.972.1714%1.070.297


The positives: Good dominance, hit rate is normal, strand rate is probably going to go up


The negatives: Command, control and hr/f are not exactly where we want to see them but not exactly terrible either


The xERA of 4.23 tells us that Reyes should be performing better than what his current stats show. He's had five starts this year where he has allowed three runs or less yet he has no wins to show for those performances. That can be partially blamed on the St. Louis offense and partially on Reyes' inability to work more than five innings in three of those outings.


I think Reyes is a good buy low candidate in NL only and deeper mixed leagues. He's likely on the waiver wire in shallow leagues so there is no rush to pick him up. However, he can probably be of use in shallow mixed leagues at some point this season so if your pitching staff is weak or you have an open bench spot it wouldn't be a terrible idea to stash Reyes away for a bit.

Friday, May 25, 2007

Ryan Braun

The Brewers promoted Ryan Braun, their top hitting prospect, late Thursday. He should be grabbed immediately in NL only leagues and likely in all mixed leagues as well. The 23-year-old Braun was hitting .348/.429/.713 with 10 home runs, 12 doubles and four stolen bases at Triple-A Nashville. He swiped a total of 26 bags last season so he does like to run. That speed/power combination could make him one of the top fantasy third basemen in coming seasons.

Thursday, May 24, 2007

Jay Bruce

The Cincinnati Enquirer reported Wednesday that the Reds are going to promote Jay Bruce to Double-A Chattanooga before or at the All-Star break. Bruce is hitting .344 with nine home runs, 15 doubles and a .401 on-base percentage in 180 at-bats at High-A Sarasota. That is some solid production and it's even better when you realize that Bruce is only 20-years-old.



Chris Constancio over at FirstInning.com had a nice note about Bruce's ability to use all of the field as well saying, "Bruce ranks in the top ten [in the Florida State League] with 6 opposite-field doubles and a pair of opposite-field home runs." If Bruce can continue to hit the outside pitch with authority he is going to be a tough out in the majors.

A strong second half of the season at Double-A would put Bruce in a position to compete for an outfield job in Cincinnati next season. That might be a bit soon for his major league debut but it wouldn't be shocking to see him in the majors by the middle of the 2008 season. He's a prospect that should be owned in any type of fantasy league that allows minor league keepers.

Wednesday, May 23, 2007

Kevin Gregg

The Miami Herlad reported that Kevin Gregg is going to remain the Marlins' closer even when Henry Owens, who is eligible to come off the disabled list this week, returns to the team.

Gregg has done an excellent job for the Marlins this season. He's notched four saves to go along with a 2.33 ERA and a 27/11 K/BB ratio in 27 innings while allowing only one home run. You'd like to see a bit better command but he can continue to be successful as long as the strikeout rate holds.

I was lucky enough to grab him a couple weeks back as a cheap bullpen filler in my NL only league. If he's still floating around in your mixed league make sure you snag him. There's not a ton of competition in the Florida pen so Gregg does have a good chance of holding the job all year.

Tuesday, May 22, 2007

Those Crazy Cubs

Following up on my post from the weekend regarding Cubs closer Ryan Dempster. According to a report in the Chicago Tribune on Tuesday, Dempster is now supposed to mentor Angel Guzman to become the Cubs' next closer. As I pointed out this weekend, Dempster doesn't deserve to lose his job at the moment as he's been pitching fairly well this season. Manager Lou Pinella seems to be losing his mind.



Anyway, Guzman has to be owned in NL only leagues now until this situation shakes out. Guzman is of course anything but a sure thing. He's young and he's been injury prone but he does have the stuff to succeed as a closer. Bobby Howry, Michael Wuertz and Carlos Marmol all should be stashed away on benches in NL only leagues as it seems anything could happen with the closing role. One thing seems certain right now, Pinella wants to move Dempster back to the rotation and that kills Dempster's fantasy value. It is probably too late to get anything of value for him at this point so you might have to hold on to Dempster and hope Pinella comes to his senses.

Monday, May 21, 2007

Ken Rosenthal's Latest Column

I always recommend reading Ken Rosenthal's weekly column for good trade/player rumors. Some of the info in his columns can be helpful for fantasy leaguers. He actually has two good columns worth reading today.

Sunday, May 20, 2007

Carlos Marmol

Manager Lou Pinella is starting to get sick of Ryan Dempster and almost made a change to the back of his bullpen this weekend. According to the Associated Press in a report Sunday evening, Dempster was told he would be moving back to the rotation but before long he was told that he would remain the Cubs' closer.

Dempster's actually been doing a decent job this year with nine saves and only one blown save to his record. His K/9 and K/BB ratios are fine and his BB/9 is decent. His ERA is inflated due to a poor strand rate but his job is based on being able to strand runners if he comes into a situation with runners on base. If he continues to have problems here there is a good chance that Pinella will scapegoat Dempster and consider making a closing switch.

The Chicago Sun-Times reported on Sunday morning that Carlos Marmol was the likely candidate to take over closing duties for Dempster had a change been made. Marmol has good stuff as evidenced by his 48/12 K/BB ratio as a starter at Triple-A this season. He's going to get a chance to establish himself as a setup man for now it would seem and that makes him worth stashing away in NL only leagues. Dempster has proven to be faulty as a closer in the past and has indicated that he would prefer to start despite the history of stats that proves he's no good in that role. If a change happens Marmol could be the beneficiary.

Saturday, May 19, 2007

Brad Penny - is it time to move him?

Well, it has been a while since I posted. My personal life has been a bit busy which has left me with less time on the fantasy circuit this year. I am still in a couple leagues so I have been keeping tabs on things. I just haven't been able to help other out along the way.

I am going to take a look at pitcher performance for now as it what interests me at the moment. This post will be a look at Brad Penny, who I own in my NL only league. He has piqued my interest because of his great start to the season despite his lack of strikeouts.



NameSeasonIPERAxERAH%S%CtlDomCmdhr/fhr/9
Brad Penny200756.72.542.6229%77%3.185.561.75 0%0

Penny's 2007 performance is good and most of the numbers here are fine. However, he is lacking a bit in dominance (K/9), command (K/BB) and control (BB/9). These numbers are all just slighty worse than what you want out of a starter on your squad according to the baselines outlined by Ron Shandler at Baseball HQ. I use these metrics to measure the performance of my players in a file I created that can easily calculate these rates for me.

Right now I would label Penny as a pitcher you should be trying to sell but I also wouldn't worry if you can't move him immediately. Penny says he is reinventing himself this year as his approach will rely more on pitching to contact and less on striking batters out (outside of that 14 K performance against the Marlins). Penny has posted a 2.68 GB/FB rate thus far this season and if he can keep his ratio around there with his current K/9, K/BB, BB/9 he should remain effective this season. The question is, can he keep up the favorable ground ball rate?

Note: I didn't mention the HR rate but obviously that isn't sustainable. Expect his ERA to rise a bit even if he maintains his performance accross the board everywhere else.

Friday, April 27, 2007

Got my Fantasy Baseball HQ newsletter today and saw this interesting post from Shandler

RON SHANDLER'S MASTER NOTES
HQ at the Ballpark
Last week, my column at BaseballHQ.com described how that the evolution of our industry is spawning social isolationism. Fantasy sports was designed to be a social activity. With online gaming, not only do we not need to be in the same room anymore, we don't even have to use our real names.

In the column, I suggested that we all get out from behind our computer monitors and start connecting to the others in our leagues. We should share phone numbers, engage in live trade negotiations rather than email. If you recognize a familiar area code, you should hop into your car and meet a league-mate over a few beers.

This column generated some spirited discussion on our message boards as well last week. One of the other ideas floated out there was for us to arrange some ballpark outings. Sure, what better way to connect than at a game?

So I am going to do this. I am planning an outing this summer at either RFK Stadium or Camden Yards – I'm still trying to work out my schedule. I'll report back here in a few weeks. If you would like to spearhead an outing for Baseball HQ Friday readers at your home ballpark, drop me a note. Send it to me personally at letsconnect@ronshandler.com.

This summer, we're going to fight back against the aspects of this hobby that isolate us.


I'd actually suggest that people should try to get into more auction or straight draft leagues that are live and local to their area. I am only able to participate in one live auction at the moment but it is far and away my favorite league. Nothing is better than getting together with a group and spending a few hours together doing a draft in the same room. Our league has an All-Star break meeting as well which helps to better connect with league mates - something I also think is a good idea.

Friday, February 23, 2007

Wife Swap wants Fantasy Junkies

Greetings ~My name is Julia Jenkins and I am a casting producer for ABC familieshit reality show 'Wife Swap.'We are currently casting for our third season and we are looking forFAMILIES THAT LOVE TO PLAY FANTASY SPORTS.

We cast everywhere fromMaine to California, and this would bring a fun and unique dynamic tothe show.If you are unfamiliar with the show, Wife Swap is a fascinating storyof what happens when two married couples see themselves and theirspouses in a whole new light. Time Magazine calls Wife Swap "ariveting examination of family values." The New York Post says, "Itshould be called 'Life Swap'because it's not just the wives who learn something here. It's thefamilies.

"The premise of Wife Swap is simple: for seven days, two wives from twodifferent families with very different values exchange husbands,children and lives (but not bedrooms) to discover what it's like tolive a different woman's life.Here at 'Wife Swap' we look for a two-parent home with at least onechild between the ages of 6 and 17 living at home fulltime.

We are currently casting for our third season, so don't miss out onthis amazing experience! Families that appear on the show receive$20,000 as a thank you. And if you refer a family that appears on theshow you would receive $1000.If you have a family and you are interested in applying for the show,or if you know of any great families that you would like to refer,please EMAIL:julia.jenkins@rdfusa.com. Please provide details in your email!!Thanks! I look forward to hearing from you!

Tuesday, January 30, 2007

Baseball Notebook Blog

Been a while since I posted - check out the new blog at BaseballNotebook.com for lots of good information.

Saturday, July 01, 2006

CREATiVESPORTS’ 2006 Mid-Season MLB Report - FREE!

Built specifically with the NFBC Mid-Season leagues in mind, CREATiVESPORTS.com’s Mid-Season MLB Report, now in its second year, will soon be ready to ship.

This comprehensive report includes:
An easy-to-use, sortable projections spreadsheet in a format comparable to CREATiVESPORTS’ popular MLB Draft Kit. Information includes player name, team, position, secondary position eligibility, round and position ranking, along with projected second-half statistics using CREATiVESPORTS’ exclusive ZEN PROJECTION ENGINE™.

Comprehensive set of team reports for all 30 MLB squads written by the baseball experts at CREATiVESPORTS, including depth charts and team forecasts on hitting, pitching, speed and bullpen. Deadline trades and September call-ups are also forecasted.

If you’re competing in the NFBC Mid-Season leagues or you want that extra push to win your full-season leagues, this report is for you! Just sign up for our exclusive Fantasy Sports Daily e-newsletter to receive your free copy. Current FSD subscribers should look for the link to this Report no later than July 9.

Thursday, April 06, 2006

Baseball Card Death

This site, while not the prettiest, is pretty damn funny for any of you that might have collected baseball cards in the late 80's to early 90's.

Sunday, March 05, 2006

Pen Names - a look at closing situations

I've been busy lately and haven't had much time to dedicate to this blog. Here are my three columns that I've posted for Creativesports this month and last:



Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Florida Marlins
Baltimore Orioles

Friday, February 17, 2006

Friday, February 10, 2006

Pen Names

My first article for the 2006 season is posted at CS: Pen Names > Baltimore Orioles - a look at the closing situation.

Monday, January 23, 2006

Sunday, January 22, 2006

The Baseball Injury Report

I stumbled upon this site today. Not sure if it will be of any value to fantasy leaguers but there is a free newsletter that you can sign up for which should give a good indication of what value this site might have to offer.

Saturday, January 14, 2006

Rotospin.com Projections

Rotospin has launched their 2006 dollar value calculator and it is free. I've never used their projections so I can't speak to the quality of them but they are free.

Tuesday, December 20, 2005

Baseball Notebook Top 100 Prospects

The Baseball Notebook Top 100 Prospects, a prospect list like no other you'll find on the internet. David Luciani's lists will always stray away from those you'll find at other prominent sites because of the type of analysis he does. In fact, I can guarentee you that no other site will have Hunter Pence ranked as the #3 overall prospect in baseball. Does that mean Luciani is wrong? No. Does it mean he is right? No. Does it mean there is a chance for you to find sweet value at the end of your prospect draft by taking a chance on Pence when hardly anyone else will consider him? Yes.

In the end it is all about finding value in fantasy leagues. If you can unearth a gem no one else has heard of and you can get him on the cheap then you have to cash in on that opportunity. Consider the Baseball Notebook prospect list as your chance to cash in. Not all of the prospects will pan out but no list can predict every future star.

Sunday, December 11, 2005

Fangraphs

I ran across this site a while back: www.fangraphs.com. I recommend checking it out. Here's a little blurb about what they do:

At Fangraphs we have 17 graphs for every player that played in the Major Leagues since 2002. That comes to about 30,000 baseball graphs. Every graph is updated every single day of the season with the most current stats. Not only do we graph ordinary stats such as batting average but we also provide graphs of various sabermetrics.

Sunday, December 04, 2005

Diamond Draft Free Customizable $ Values

Hi everyone. It's been a nice break but the offseason doesn't last long when you write for fantasy websites. I've been working on my submissions for three different mags/draft kits and have started to notice some free resources popping up already.

First off, check out Diamond Draft for free, customizable dollar values. I've never used their projections so I can't speak to the quality but it is a free resource.

Second, David Luciani at Baseball Notebook has posted a sneak peak at his projections for 2006. The finished product won't be free however.

More to come this offseason!

Friday, August 19, 2005

FANALYTICS: Quint-Inning, The Official Rules

Ron Shandler has come up with a way to play fantasy baseball for only one game. It's an interesting concept. Ron is trying to find away to connect with the attention deficit crowd who likes fantasy sports and baseball but is not able to make the long-term commitment to a full season of fantasy baseball.

Friday, August 12, 2005

BULLPEN BUYERS GUIDE: Relief roles mean opportunities

A good example of how to analyze relief roles to determine which relievers can help you down the stretch.

Monday, July 25, 2005

The Road From Bristol

Side tracking from Fantasy Baseball...

Vote for your most hated ESPN talking head on The Road From Bristol. If you hate what ESPN has become like I do then you'll love this competition.

Saturday, July 23, 2005

John Lackey (SP), LA Angels

Sorry for the lack of posts - been busy with my column and other stuff. Hopefully you've all checked out the new CS site.

Anyway, I decided to take a look at John Lackey this week as he's been quite impressive this season (again, I had to do this on another webpage as my blog formatting gets screwed up from these charts). If you need definitions for any of the terms click here.

Saturday, July 02, 2005

Dan Wheeler (RP), Houston

Ok, I tried and tried to get this post to work on my blog but it kept messing up the blog columns and puching all my links to the bottom of the page. Since I am an HTML novice when it comes to fixing this stuff I decided to move this post to another site so it can be read with my chart:

Click here to read my analysis on Dan Wheeler and why he might be a good pickup in your league, mixed or NL only.

Thursday, June 30, 2005

Tuesday, June 28, 2005

Tuesday, June 21, 2005

Strike Zone - AL Closers of the Future

A nice look at closers around the AL by Matthew Pouliot.

Also, if anyone on the list is joining a mid-season league there will be a mid-season draft kit available from Creativesports.

Remember to sign up for the Fantasy Sports Daily as well so you can get my weekly AL or Nothing column.

Sunday, June 19, 2005

Ask David Luciani, Volume 6, Number 19

Thought this was a pretty good issue of Ask David at Baseball Notebook.

Friday, June 10, 2005

Why I hate FAAB

Haven't posted in a while but that's because it's been the same old, same old. However, good article this week on FAAB and of particular interest to me, the Vickrey Method.

Wednesday, June 01, 2005

The Hotpage, Rankings and a TRUM

Sorry for the low amount of posts. I was on vacation for the last week. Here are some quality links:

Lawr Michaels' Baseball Hotpage > Week Nine, 2005 Season

June's Top 250 at Rotoworld. Rankings of the top players by position.

TMR's TRUM is almost always a good read. Check it out.

Sunday, May 22, 2005

The Week Ahead

The Week Ahead by Kyle Kalotschke

Scheduled Advantage: May 23-29, 2005 by David Luciani and Jim McGrath

Thursday, May 19, 2005

On Fantasy Baseball Trading

David Luciani On Fantasy Baseball Trading. I think this is a very good article and is well worth reading.

Wednesday, May 18, 2005

AL or Nothing

My latest AL or Nothing. I haven't been posting these here lately because they are Fantasy Sports Daily content now and that doesn't appear on the website until a week after it appears in the newsletter. Anyway, if you like my stuff you can subscribe and get my article every Wednesday.

Sunday, May 15, 2005

Planning for the Week Ahead

Shawn McEvoy's The Week Ahead

David Luciani and Jim McGrath's Scheduled Advantage: May 16-22, 2005

Kyle Kalotschke's The Week Ahead

Thursday, May 12, 2005

Sunday, May 08, 2005

Planning for the week ahead

David Luciani and Jim McGrath's Scheduled Advantage: May 9-15, 2005

Kyle Kalotschke's Week Ahead at TMR.com

Tuesday, May 03, 2005

Monday, April 25, 2005

Sunday, April 24, 2005

Wednesday, April 20, 2005

Prospect Hotsheet

Kevin Goldstein's Prospect Hotsheet made it's debut this week. A good tool for those of you in deep keepers that can pick up prospects during the season.

Monday, April 18, 2005

Sunday, April 17, 2005

Thursday, April 14, 2005

Wednesday, April 13, 2005

Tuesday, April 12, 2005

Monday, April 11, 2005

Strike Zone - Notes by Team

Matthew Pouliot takes a pass around the majors with notes for each team.

Sunday, April 10, 2005

Scheduled Advantage: April 11-17

David Luciani and Jim McGrath break down the upcoming schedule and tell you who to start and who to sit.

Thursday, April 07, 2005

AL or Nothing - Week 1

My AL or Nothing column looking at injuries and waiver wire pickups.

Sunday, April 03, 2005

The Sports Forecaster

The Sports Forecaster is a free online fantasy mag (PDF) from the Toronto Star.

Thursday, March 31, 2005

JDM's Scoresheet Baseabll

I realized I forgot to mention a great site for prospect info: JDM's Scoresheet Baseball. Don't worry about the name of the site. The prospect info is from all around the web. Might be the only place you need to go to get prospect info.

Wednesday, March 30, 2005

Tuesday, March 29, 2005

Tout Wars: Auction Results

Looking for mock auctions? Look no further. The Tout AL, NL and mixed leagues drafted this weekend and the results are posted on the Tout Wars site. The spreadsheets are also a nice free resource for those of you that want a tracking sheet to use during your auction.

Friday, March 25, 2005

Around the NL

I haven't been giving NL columns any mention here (I hadn't noticed any free ones lately). Then I came across this. Probably won't be free every week though.

Tuesday, March 22, 2005

Sunday, March 20, 2005

AL or Nothing - Need a few owners

I have an AL league that I am doing for fun this year. No keeps, nothing long-term just wanted another AL league. I have a couple spots left. If any of the readers here are interested, here are the specs:

Yahoo Free League: http://baseball.fantasysports.yahoo.com/b1/
Live online draft is set for Sat Apr 2 2:30pm EST
League ID: 9944
Password: fresca


Max Teams: 12
Scoring Type: Rotisserie
Player Universe: AL only
Max Moves: No maximum
Max Trades: No maximum
Trade Reject Time: 2
Trade End Date: August 28, 2005
Waiver Time: 2 days
Can't Cut List Provider: Yahoo! Sports
Trade Review: League Votes
Post Draft Players: Follow Waiver Rules
Max Games Played: 162
Max Innings Pitched: 1400
Weekly Deadline: Daily - Tomorrow
Start Scoring on: Sunday, Apr 3

Roster Positions: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, CI, MI, OF, OF, OF, OF, OF, Util, SP, SP, SP, SP, RP, RP, RP, P, P, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, DL, DL, DL, DL

Stat Categories: R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, W, SV, K, ERA, WHIP

Wednesday, March 16, 2005

Closer Watch

The closer watch on The Inside Pitch site is a nice, free resource for keeping tabs on bullpen situations around the league.

Tuesday, March 15, 2005

Outside the Boxscore: State of the Third Basemen

Jonathan Gangi looks at third baseman and readers offer a few other suggestions for reading fantasy baseball content at work.

Saturday, March 12, 2005

Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft Software

Free (donations accepted) mock draft software at Fantasy Info Central.

Friday, March 11, 2005

Thursday, March 10, 2005

Monday, March 07, 2005

OnDeck Baseball Prospects

Scott Rex is back in action at OnDeck Baseball Prospects. He is currently doing daily wrap-ups of spring training action and once the season starts will likely shift back to his normal breeze around the minors. Definitely a good site to check into every couple of days.

Sunday, March 06, 2005

Strike Zone - Upcoming Free Agents

Matthew Pouliot previews the 2006 free agents. If you're a believer in guys having big year's in their contract year, this is the article for you.

Friday, March 04, 2005

Top Prospect Lists: Wrap-up

Since I started this blog I've been posting top prospect lists as I came across them. This post will combine all those lists into one easy reasource for access to the free prospect lists on the internet:

Rotoworld: Prospects Report - 2005 Top 100 Prospects
Baseball Prospectus: Top 50 Prospects
Creativesports: Spikes Up - Top 20 Prospects, Part One
Diamond Futures: Top 100 Prospects (Hitters, Pitchers, Overall)
The Minors First: Top 100 Prospects
ESPN: John Sickels - Top 10 Hitters & Pitchers
Creativesports: Lawr Michaels - Top 10 Prospects
Minor League Ball: John Sickels - Top 20's for each team
Sportsblurb: The Farm Report - Top 10's for each team
Baseball America: Top 100 by Position, Team, Age and more

Baseball Notebook: Top 100 lists
Top 100 Prospects - NL Pitchers
Top 100 Prospects - AL Pitchers
Top 100 Prospects - NL Hitters
Top 100 Prospects - AL Hitters

Rotoworld: Strike Zone - Top 10 Lists for Each Division
NL West
AL West
NL Central
AL Central
NL East
AL East

Wednesday, March 02, 2005

Tuesday, March 01, 2005